Almonds: what’s wrong with the top 5?
November 18, 2024 at 11:26 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Exports no longer main driver
October has not only boosted confidence for US suppliers but shipments in the first three months of the season also show quite a shift in demand as the most recent position report issued by the Almond Board of California highlights. Monthly shipments came in at 258 million pounds with domestic shipments displaying their strongest October in four years at 67 million pounds, which is also 18% up on October 2023. Exports only ranged marginally higher than last year at 191 million pounds. Total shipments have climbed to 677 million pounds, which is 6% up on last year. Unlike last year, when exports showed the main growth, domestic shipments are 2% up on last year at 185 million pounds but exports have declined by 8% to 455 million pounds.
Sharp declines in top 5 destinations
Another significant shift is that shipments to the top five export markets have changed completely. While India, Spain and China along with the United Arab Emirates and Germany were last year’s top five, four destinations are displaying double digit declines this year. Yet, the United Arab Emirates are the noted exception as shipments have surged by 33%. Shipments to India, the most important export market for US almonds are 16% down. Issue is that many buyers switched to Australia, which produced a bumper crop this year. Expectation, however, is that buyers will return to California as demand is reportedly stronger than usual after Diwali and Australian supplies will eventually be exhausted.
Spain still features amongst the top five, despite shipments having dropped by 31%. Issue is that domestic production is up and that buyers in Western Europe can also draw on a larger Portuguese crop. Shipments to Western Europe are, in fact, 27% down at 102 million pounds. Germany sports the most stunning decline of 52% and no longer even ranks among the top ten for California. Italy is a curious exception as this is the only country in Western Europe recording a nominal rise of 1.5% in shipments from California. US suppliers are nevertheless confident that European buyers will return as supplies are depleted.
Confidence boosted
Buyers in China have also drawn on the large Australian crop, which partly explains the sharp downturn of 38%. With Donald Trump’s tariffs on the agenda things are, however, not set to improve. Yet, suppliers have highlighted an upsurge in shipments to southeast Asia, especially to Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore, form where China is also able to source almonds. In fact, as niche markets have been able to pick up the slack left by the top five importing countries and total shipments have risen in the first three months of the season, confidence prevails that buyers will return and accept the current high prices US suppliers are asking for.
|
US almond shipments in 1,000 lbs |
|||
|
Destination |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
181,311 |
185,430 |
2.3% |
|
India |
121,814 |
102,139 |
-16.2% |
|
UAE |
38,421 |
51,052 |
32.9% |
|
Turkey |
24,081 |
38,643 |
60.5% |
|
Spain |
41,339 |
28,537 |
-31.0% |
|
China/Hong Kong |
40,851 |
25,526 |
-37.5% |
|
Italy |
19,558 |
19,857 |
1.5% |
|
Netherlands |
23,289 |
19,713 |
-15.4% |
|
Canada |
15,838 |
16,314 |
3.0% |
|
Vietnam |
9,917 |
15,511 |
56.4% |
|
South Korea |
12,516 |
14,037 |
12.1% |
|
Others |
111,351 |
160,315 |
44.0% |
|
Total |
640,286 |
677,074 |
5.7% |
|
California almonds, 01/08-31/10 |
|||
Speculations over crop size
Apart from this, the final crop size will also play a role. Crop receipts were 38% up on last year at the end of October at 1.8 billion pounds. Processing is underway with suppliers keen to sell. Expectation is that arrivals will start to slow in November after which the first ideas as to the crop size will emerge. January will show in how far the official estimate of 2.8 billion pounds will be met. While some supplier such as Olam reckon that the crop volume will range lower, others are confident that the crop will meet expectations. Reports state that yields are good so far with larger kernels being more limited this year.
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