Almonds: upbeat forecast

May 13, 2024 at 10:57 AM , Der AUDITOR
Play report as audio

SACRAMENTO. Production is set to bounce back to 3 billion pounds for almonds in California this year. The weather was great for pollination. Question is in how far this figure will hold in the objective estimate.

3-billion-pound crop

Judging by the subjective crop estimate issued by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on 10 May production will bounce back by 21% to 3 billion pounds in 2024. Yields will also range 21% higher, whereas bearing acres will remain flat at 1.38 million. Weather conditions were mainly good in the first half of the growing season. Although quite a few storms brought rain, wind and hail to some areas, temperatures were generally mild and excellent weather conditions helped pollination along between the end of February and mid-March encouraging NASS to anticipate the second largest production on record.

California almond acreage and production

Value

2023

2024

Diff.

Bearing acres

1,380,000

1,380,000

0.0%

Yield per acre

1,790

2,170

21.2%

Production (million pounds)

2,470

3,000

21.4%

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service 10/05/24

Acreage to range lower

This forecast is, however, only preliminary and based on a survey in which 500 randomly selected growers took part between 19 April and 5 May. NASS will issue the objective estimate, which will be based on counts conducted in 1,000 orchards, on 10 July. Although Rabobank also anticipates a 3-billion-pound crop this year, it should be noted that Land IQ issued a slightly smaller estimate over 1.373 million bearing acres in April. This estimate highlights that acreage has declined for the first time in roughly thirty years.

 

View more
price chart, almonds, natural, +14, Valencia
price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR
more price charts

View related articles

Go to the News Overview
Nuts
Feb 21, 2025
THERAN/FRESNO. As the January Shipment Report issued by the Administrative Committee for Pistachios (ACP) highlights US exports have slumped. Inventories are limited but projections for the 2025 crop are encouraging. Iran is about to lose its competitive position.
Nuts
Feb 19, 2025
MANILA/HANOI. The cultivation of coconut palms is to be increased in both the Philippines and Sri Lanka. This could lead to a shift in market dynamics. Meanwhile, Vietnam recorded a 20% rise in coconut exports last year and wants to expand its cooperation with China.
Nuts
Feb 19, 2025
NAIROBI/CANBERRA. Kenyan farmers and traders are suffering from the export ban on in-shell macadamias. Australian exporters, meanwhile, have reason to celebrate. EU imports in 2024 rose slightly.
Nuts
Feb 19, 2025
TORREÓN/BRUSSELS. Production has fallen short of expectations in Mexico and the USA. Buyers will have to brace for a supply squeeze. Trump’s tariffs spell bad news for US pecans. EU imports have risen.