Almonds: upbeat forecast
May 13, 2024 at 10:57 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
3-billion-pound crop
Judging by the subjective crop estimate issued by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on 10 May production will bounce back by 21% to 3 billion pounds in 2024. Yields will also range 21% higher, whereas bearing acres will remain flat at 1.38 million. Weather conditions were mainly good in the first half of the growing season. Although quite a few storms brought rain, wind and hail to some areas, temperatures were generally mild and excellent weather conditions helped pollination along between the end of February and mid-March encouraging NASS to anticipate the second largest production on record.
California almond acreage and production |
|||
Value |
2023 |
2024 |
Diff. |
Bearing acres |
1,380,000 |
1,380,000 |
0.0% |
Yield per acre |
1,790 |
2,170 |
21.2% |
Production (million pounds) |
2,470 |
3,000 |
21.4% |
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service 10/05/24 |
Acreage to range lower
This forecast is, however, only preliminary and based on a survey in which 500 randomly selected growers took part between 19 April and 5 May. NASS will issue the objective estimate, which will be based on counts conducted in 1,000 orchards, on 10 July. Although Rabobank also anticipates a 3-billion-pound crop this year, it should be noted that Land IQ issued a slightly smaller estimate over 1.373 million bearing acres in April. This estimate highlights that acreage has declined for the first time in roughly thirty years.
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