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Almonds: tight supplies and speculations

July 16, 2024 at 10:39 AM , Der AUDITOR
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SACRAMENTO. Opinions may be contradicting but June was a very strong month for US almonds. With the season in its final stages concerns are being voiced over remaining supplies and the state of the new crop.

Strong shipments in June

Opinions diverge as to in how far June shipments were in line with expectations. While Olam highlights that they fell short of the anticipated 220 million pounds, other suppliers state that they were just as expected. Fact is that the US exported 144.1 million pounds of almonds and domestic volumes climbed to 62.0 million pounds, thereby prompting monthly total shipments to reach 206.2 million pounds. This is 10% up on the 186.6 million pounds shipped in June 2023. June, in other words, performed remarkably well.

Total shipments range 6% higher than last year at 2.5 billion pounds. Domestic shipments have climbed by 2% to 675 million pounds and exports stand 7% higher than last year at 1.8 billion pounds. While exports to India have surged by 24%, they have declined by a moderate 3% to Spain. Contrary to this, shipments to the United Arab Emirates are 29% up.

US almond shipments (1,000 lbs)

Destinations

2022/23

2023/24

Diff.

USA

659,833

674,966

2.3%

India

306,816

380,544

24.0%

Spain

178,823

173,908

-2.8%

UAE

115,007

148,605

29.2%

China/Hong Kong

139,007

102,621

-26.2%

Netherlands

81,383

99,766

22.6%

Germany

103,819

99,340

-4.3%

Turkey

74,075

94,158

27.1%

Japan

81,841

81,338

-0.6%

Italy

78,090

79,209

1.4%%

Morocco

58,002

72,529

25.0%

Others

501,249

505,563

0.9%

Total

2,377,947

2,512,547

5.7%

California almonds, 01/08-30/06
Shelled and inshell

Tight supplies

Industry representatives do, however, unanimously agree that remaining supplies are limited with quality being an issue. Uncommitted inventories have indeed slumped by 36% to 337.5 million pounds as compared with last year. As a further estimated 54 million pounds of loss and exempt will also be counted into the equation at the end of the season available inventories sit even lower. Certain sizes and varieties are sold out and a large share of inventories does not conform to USDA standards. This in conjunction with the downward revision in the USDA’s objective forecast for this year’s crop to 2.8 billion pounds has driven up the market.

With just over two weeks remaining of the current season attentio has turned to harvest conditions in California. As preparations for the harvest are in their final stages California is preparing for hot weather and growers are monitoring early hull splits. These contain no kernels and serve as an indication has to how well the trees have been fertilised and what pest controls are necessary. As cash is an issue for many farmers and orchards have been left abandoned reports abound emphasising that pests may have a great impact on this year’s crop. Handlers have so far already sold 271.3 million pounds for 2024/2025.

 

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price chart, almonds. Mamra, Iran
price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR
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