Almonds: tariffs and trade agreements could shape market
March 13, 2025 at 9:18 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
January exports slow down
In January 2025, Australia delivered a total of 5,321 mt of shelled and unshelled almonds domestically and overseas, an increase of just 0.5% compared to the same month last year. While domestic shipments increased by a whopping 77.5% to 2,142 mt, the export volume fell by 21.3% to 3.12 mt; after the record exports of the previous months, this is still the third best result for January exports. However, given that Australia's almond exports had already exceeded annual production in December, this is not surprising. In addition to the significant increase in domestic shipments, exports to Turkey (+117.9% to 1,745 mt), China (+57.8% to 445 mt) and Indonesia (+50.3% to 218 mt) were also up year-on-year in the penultimate month of the current season. In contrast, shipments to Germany (-45% to 111 mt), India (-85.1% to 89 mt) and the United Arab Emirates (-28.2% to 102 mt) declined.
Since the beginning of the 2024/2025 season (1 March 2024 - 31 January 2025), a total of around 163,444 mt of Australian almonds with and without shells have been shipped domestically and overseas. While domestic deliveries fell by 2.1% year-on-year to 23,002 mt, exports increased by 36.1% to 140,442 mt. Shipments to China increased by almost 130% year-on-year to 75,476 mt and deliveries to India also recorded growth of 7.0% to 19,625 mt – countries such as Turkey (+8.5% to 11,524 mt), Germany (+23.4% to 4,549 mt) and the United Arab Emirates (+77.1% to 3,805 mt) followed this trend. In contrast, shipments to Vietnam (-30.0% to 8,256 mt) and Spain (-66.9% to 3,385 mt) declined overall.
|
Almonds shipments, Australia, in mt |
|||
|
Destination |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
China |
32,962 |
75,476 |
129.0% |
|
Australia |
22,539 |
23,002 |
2.1% |
|
India |
18,336 |
19,625 |
7.0% |
|
Turkey |
10,621 |
11,524 |
8.5% |
|
Vietnam |
11,798 |
8,256 |
-30.0% |
|
Germany |
3,685 |
4,549 |
23.4% |
|
UAE |
2,148 |
3,805 |
77.1% |
|
Spain |
10,226 |
3,385 |
-66.9% |
|
Indonesia |
709 |
1,926 |
171.7% |
|
Thailand |
934 |
1,732 |
85.4% |
|
Others |
11,789 |
10,164 |
-13.8% |
|
Total |
125,747 |
163,444 |
30.0% |
|
Almond Board of Australia; Mar-Jan, shelled and unshelled |
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Higher demand expected at the start of the season
Even if only indirectly affected, the new crop will bring exciting times to the Australian almond market. The tariff disputes between the USA and China could ensure that the Asian bulk buyers continue to favour Australian almonds in the future. However, the potential trade agreement between the USA and India, which would include almonds, is putting a damper on things. In this trade relationship, Australia currently still benefits from around 50% lower tariffs compared to Californian almonds.
With current estimates of the Australian almond crop of 155,531 mt being slightly lower than initially assumed, buyers may want to secure more of the popular Nonpareil almonds in order to secure the required quantities early on.
According to the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service, around 1.647 million mt of shelled almonds were produced worldwide in the 2024/2025 season, corresponding to a 13.3% increase in production compared to the previous year. Significantly higher yields were recorded in the USA (+13.4% to 1.27 million mt), Australia (+3.9% to 160,000 mt) and the EU (+11.1% to 150,000 mt). Turkey (+12.5% to 27,000 mt) and China (+380% to 24,000 mt) are also said to have increased their production significantly year-on-year.
|
Almond production, in mt |
|||
|
Country |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
1,120,370 |
1,270,060 |
13.4% |
|
Australia |
154,000 |
160,000 |
3.9% |
|
EU |
135,000 |
150,000 |
11.1% |
|
Turkey |
24,000 |
27,000 |
12.5% |
|
China |
5,000 |
24,000 |
380.0% |
|
Chile |
11,300 |
11,500 |
1.8% |
|
India |
4,200 |
4,150 |
-1.2% |
|
Total |
1,453,870 |
1,646,710 |
13.3% |
|
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service |
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