Almonds: strong December
January 14, 2025 at 11:54 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Flat shipments
US almond shipments are on par with last year after a strong November and December as the recent position report issued by the Almond Board of California shows. While monthly exports surged to a record 217 million pounds in November, the market witnessed the second strongest December on record as exports hit 177 million pounds as Olam emphasises. This is 2.5% up on the 173 million pounds registered in December 2023. Domestic shipments, by contrast, ranged 1% lower than last year at 56 million pounds thereby bringing monthly net shipments for December to 233 million pounds, which is 2% up on the 226 million pounds shipped in December 2023.
Total exports now range a bit higher than last year at 848,840 million pounds, whereas total domestic shipments have declined a bit year and stand at 295,918 million pounds. Grand total shipments have flatlined at 1.144 billion pounds.
Exports to India to pick up
Exports to India may still be lagging 21% behind last year for the first five months of the season, yet shipments picked up in December and are expected to gain in the the next few months as demand remains unchanged within the country and less volumes are available elsewhere. The United Arab Emirates have become the second most import export destination for California this season so far as shipments range 11% higher than last year. In fact, the Middle East, is showing resilient growth, especially in Turkey where shipments have surged by a stunning 65%.
Contrary to this, shipments to Spain are 16% down with reports stating that the Netherlands may easily overtake the country as leading export market in Western Europe this season. With trade tensions looming large shipments to China are not expected to recover anytime soon. China has instead turned to more advantageous sources, such as Vietnam, to secure supplies
|
US almond shipments in 1,000 lbs |
|||
|
Destination |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
India |
198,421 |
157,049 |
-20.9% |
|
UAE |
69,505 |
77,283 |
11.2% |
|
Spain |
77,628 |
65,479 |
-15.7% |
|
Turkey |
36,680 |
60,394 |
64.7% |
|
Netherlands |
43,376 |
59,016 |
36.1% |
|
China/Hong Kong |
69,097 |
38,131 |
-44.8% |
|
Germany |
44,728 |
35,979 |
-19.6% |
|
Italy |
36,027 |
35,880 |
-0.4% |
|
Japan |
31,685 |
31,371 |
-1.0% |
|
Vietnam |
18,028 |
26,720 |
48.2% |
|
Others |
221,219 |
261,538 |
18.2% |
|
Total Exports |
846,394 |
848,840 |
0.3% |
|
Total Domestic |
298,360 |
295,918 |
-0.8% |
|
Grand Total |
1,144,753 |
1,144,758 |
0.0% |
|
California almonds, 01/08-31/12 |
|||
Market to remain bullish
Apart from this the market is concerned with supplies and the conditions for the next crop. Crop receipts to date may stand 16% higher than last year at 2.576 billion pounds yet slowed considerably in December and are well below industry expectations. Most reports now state that it will be impossible to meet the objective estimate of 2.8 billion pounds with 2.7 billion pounds pegged as a more likely scenario meaning that supplies will be more constrained in January to July. As demand is strong and prices range below production costs in California bullish sentiments should persist.
Wildfires as a stark warning
With the crucial bloom period approaching in February attention has shifted to weather conditions. The devastating fires in and around Los Angeles show what dramatic impact the climate crisis is having and is bringing periods of sustained drought back to memory in California’s Central Valley. Yet, it is impossible to predict what weather conditions will prevail during bloom and further on. News at present is that the snowpack in northern California looks good and that reservoirs are well filled meaning that farmers should have enough water at their disposal this year.
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