Almonds: ending stocks to hit record
March 23, 2022 at 11:55 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
High demand anticipated in Australia
Judging by the recent position report issued by the Almond Board of California and the data collected by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) global almond kernel production should reach 1.66M mt (3.67B lbs). Although yields ranged lower in the USA, crop receipts only declined by 6.33% to 1.31M mt (2.89B lbs) between February and August as opposed to the same period last year. Olam Nuts reckons that the crop will reach 1.32M mt (2.92B lbs). In Spain, production is estimated 5.5% lower, which is not quite as bad as initial estimates predicted.
Production has, by contrast, risen by 9% in Australia to 124,349 mt (274.14M lbs). As new trees are bearing fruit the Almond Board of Australia reckons that production will surge by another 17% this year and reach 145,000 mt (319.6M lbs). Annual production may even hit 185,000 mt (407.8M lbs) in 2025. The Almond Board of Australia is confident that demand will remain high and is eager to maintain record export volumes and continue to supply more than 50 countries. Recent years have shown that buyers require multiple channels to maintain supplies to be able to react to supply squeezes and delays, which presents an opportunity for Australia.
|
Almond production, kernel basis, in mt |
|||
|
Country |
2020/21 |
2021/22 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
1,400,444* |
1,310,000* |
-6.3% |
|
Australia |
114,400 |
124,439 |
8.8% |
|
Spain |
115,600 |
109,200 |
-5.5% |
|
Turkey |
16,500 |
18,000 |
9.1% |
|
Tunesia |
16,000 |
16,500 |
3.1% |
|
Portugal |
12,000 |
15,000 |
25.0% |
|
Morocco |
14,000 |
13,000 |
-7.1% |
|
Chile |
11,000 |
12,000 |
9.1% |
|
Italy |
10,000 |
8,500 |
-15.0% |
|
Greece |
7,000 |
4,000 |
-42.9% |
|
Iran |
6,000 |
4,000 |
-33.3% |
|
Others |
30,000 |
30,000 |
0.0% |
|
Gesamt |
1,752,944 |
1.664.639 |
-5.1% |
|
INC based on Almond Board of California, USDA NASS, Almond Board of Australia, AEOFRUSE and DESCALMENDRA, Aegean Exporters' Association, Greek Nuta & Fruits Trade Association and other sources |
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Frost impact still to be assessed
Although flowering has been completed in Califorania and the leaves on the trees are green, it still remains unclear which impact frost has had. This will only show once the fruit sets appear, which will take a few weeks. As Blue Diamond Almonds reports some farmers are confident that prospects are excellent. The war in Ukraine will, however, continue to drive up fuel prices, which will prove a challenge for the export market and buyers are urged to act sooner rather than later. However, it should be noted that global end-of-season stocks will reach a record high, which will add pressure.
|
Almonds |
||
|
Type |
EUR/kg |
USD/kg |
|
Valencia, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain |
4.45 |
4.90 |
|
Valencia, +14 mm, natural, Spain |
4.60 |
5.06 |
|
California, SSR, 23/25, blanched, USA |
5.40 |
5.94 |
|
Butte/Padre, SSR, 27/30, natural, USA |
4.60 |
5.06 |
|
Butte/Padre, SSR, 27/30, blanched, USA |
5.30 |
5.83 |
|
FCA Spain |
||
Exports slow in Spain
At 8,519 mt (18.8M lbs), Spain's January exports range around 23% lower than last year. Although France remained the most important export destination in January, monthly exports ranged 4% lower at 2,359 mt (5.2M lbs) as compared with January last year. While shipments to Italy rose by 6% to 1,722 mt (3.8B lbs), shipments to Germany declined sharply by 44% to 1,487 mt (3.3M lbs) and to Belgium by a more modest 7% to 489 mt (1.1M lbs). Spain exported a total of 80,404 mt (177.3M lbs) between August and January, which is around 12% higher than in the same period in 2020/2021. France, Germany and Italy are the most imporatant export destinations by far.
|
Almond epxorts, Spain, in mt |
|||
|
Destination |
2020/21 |
2021/22 |
Diff. |
|
France |
15,177 |
19,928 |
31.3% |
|
Germany |
15,886 |
17,324 |
9.1% |
|
Italy |
12,618 |
13,883 |
10.0% |
|
Belgium |
2,240 |
3,202 |
42.9% |
|
Portugal |
2,486 |
3,103 |
24.9% |
|
UK |
4,575 |
2,998 |
-34.5% |
|
Netherlands |
2,693 |
2,583 |
-4.1% |
|
Poland |
1,988 |
2,473 |
24.4% |
|
Greece |
1,171 |
1,652 |
41.1% |
|
Czech Republic |
882 |
1,268 |
43.9% |
|
Others |
11,974 |
11,989 |
0.1% |
|
Total |
71,688 |
80,404 |
12.2% |
|
Ministry for Tourism, Industry and Trade 01/08-31/01 |
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View more
- price chart, almonds, natural, +14, Valencia
- price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
- price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR
- more price charts
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