Almonds: highly optimistic projections
June 25, 2024 at 11:51 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Global production to rise by 22%
Prospects are bright for almonds in 2024/2025. Supplies will not be an issue as global production is expected to rise by 22% as compared with 2023/2024. The current season will end with a carry-over stock of 274,114 mt, which in conjunction with total production will elevate total supplies by 9% to 2.1 billion mt. Although the INC has adopted a more cautious projection of 1.3 million mt or 2.9 billion pounds for California, US production is still expected to rise by 19%. In Australia, production has recovered and ranges 55% higher than last year.
Anticipation is also that production will rise by 30% in Spain. The INC figures range at the upper end for the 2023/2024 crop as local estimates peg the crop at 80,000-113,152 mt. Conditions for this year’s crop may be more favourable, but some producers emphasise that the prolonged drought suffered in recent years will have a lasting impact on the tress and may reduce output. China, Portugal, Turkey and Greece will see double-digit increases in production this year, whereas production in Chile, Italy and Morocco will fall.
|
Global almond production, kernel basis (mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
1,121,380 |
1,339,300 |
19.4% |
|
Australia |
103,381 |
160,000 |
54.7% |
|
Spain |
100,000 |
130,000 |
30.0% |
|
Turkey |
25,000 |
30,000 |
20.0% |
|
China |
15,000 |
25,000 |
66.7% |
|
Italy |
21,800 |
21,000 |
-3.7% |
|
Portugal |
16,000 |
20,500 |
28.1% |
|
Morocco |
18,500 |
18,000 |
-2.7% |
|
Tunisia |
12,000 |
12,000 |
0.0% |
|
Chile |
12,436 |
9,583 |
-23.0% |
|
Greece |
6,500 |
7,500 |
15.4% |
|
Iran |
6,000 |
6,000 |
0.0% |
|
Others |
16,000 |
16,000 |
0.0% |
|
Total |
1,473,997 |
1,794,883 |
21.8% |
|
Almond Board of California, Almond Board of Australia, AEOFRUSE, Chilean Almond Board, Greek Nuts & Fruits Trade Association, Aegean Exporters Association and other INC sources |
|||
Confidence in California
Industry leaders are confident that demand will not be an issue in 2024/25. According to the Almond Board of California new crop sales have tripled on last year and exceed 173 million pounds (78,471 mt). Prices are up. All eyes are pinned on the objective crop estimate, which will be issued on 10 July. Expectation is that even if the subjective estimate of 3 billion pounds (1.36 million mt) holds true supply and demand will be well balanced. This balance will, however, be thrown out of whack if the objective estimate ranges higher. Reports are, however, highlighting the problems many farmers are confronted with as high costs have rendered it more difficult to look after the orchards, many trees are left with little protection against diseases or pests. Apart from this California is bracing for another heatwave this week. Shipping costs have also tripled in the last few months, which may weigh on demand. Shipments will almost certainly slow in August and September as supplies are low and exporters will be waiting for the new crop to be harvested and processed.
Sigh of relief in Spain
News from Spain is that domestic consumption has risen. Industry representatives highlight that Spanish households consumed 33% more almonds last year as compared with 2022 as the “Report on Food Consumption in Spain 2023” issued Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food shows. Almonds are the second most favourite nut and the sales value rose by 27%. Yet, average prices fell by 4% to EUR 12.10/kg (USD 12.99/kg).
The prospects for this year’s crop differ wildly throughout Spain but look better than last year in most places. In Andalusia, for instance, the crop is expected to increase by 25% to 41,582 mt as agricultural organisations estimate. This rise is driven by an increase in the productive area and the fact that spring rains have alleviated the impact of drought in some places prompting the industry to breathe a sigh of relief. Many areas are, however, still suffering from the impact of drought. The absence of frost has also helped the crop along throughout the country this year. National production estimates range at 125,000 mt, which presents a 10% rise on last year. The productive area spans 552,748 ha this year, marking a 3% rise on last year. Organic almonds are grown on 25% of the total area, thereby exceeding 137,000 ha, which is 31,000 ha up on last year.
|
Almond production, Spain (mt) |
|||
|
Region |
2023 |
2024 |
Diff. |
|
Andalusia |
33,135 |
41,582 |
25.5% |
|
Castile-la Mancha |
33,205 |
34,515 |
3.9% |
|
Aragon |
20,712 |
22,110 |
6.7% |
|
Catalonia |
7,315 |
9,752 |
33.3% |
|
Extremadura |
4,877 |
5,854 |
20.0% |
|
Murcia |
5,300 |
4,770 |
-10.0% |
|
Valencia |
6,702 |
4,490 |
-33.0% |
|
Balearic Islands |
464 |
610 |
31.5% |
|
La Rioja |
692 |
550 |
-20.5% |
|
Others |
750 |
821 |
9.5% |
|
Total |
113,152 |
125,054 |
10.5% |
|
ASAJA, COAG, Cooperativas Agroalimentarias de Espaňa, AEOFRUSE |
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