Almonds: better than expected
April 15, 2024 at 11:34 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Exports dip in March
Despite dipping in March, exports are still the driving force this season as the current position report shows. Monthly exports only reached 174 million pounds in March, which is 19% down on the record 215 million pounds shipped overseas in March 2023. Domestic shipments also declined by 6% to 62 million pounds as compared with the 66 million pounds shipped in March last year. At 237 million pounds total shipments for the month have, however, exceeded industry expectations of 220 million pounds.
Exports have been the driving force this season and range 3% higher than last year at 1.36 billion pounds for September 2023 through to March 2024. Contrary to this, domestic shipments range a nominal 1% lower at 482 million pounds. At 1.83 billion pounds total shipments stand 2% higher than last year. Exports to India, the top export destination, have risen by 14%. Contrary to this, shipments to Spain range a bit lower at 134 million pounds. The United Arab Emirates are next in line and shipments to here have risen by 7%. While shipments to China and Hong Kong have slumped by 26%, the Netherlands are sporting the most notable rise of 35%.
|
US almond shipments in 1,000 lbs |
|||
|
Destination |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
487,226 |
482,488 |
-1.0% |
|
India |
251,574 |
288,188 |
14.5% |
|
Spain |
136,507 |
134,495 |
-1.5% |
|
UAE |
103,262 |
110,721 |
7.2% |
|
China/Hong Kong |
116,379 |
86,044 |
-26.1% |
|
Germany |
77,129 |
77,410 |
0.4% |
|
Netherlands |
56,440 |
76,192 |
35.0% |
|
Italy |
57,089 |
59,655 |
4.5% |
|
Japan |
54,121 |
57,171 |
5.6% |
|
Turkey |
56,511 |
60,150 |
6.4% |
|
Morocco |
42,086 |
42,315 |
0.5% |
|
Others |
410,883 |
364,015 |
-11.5% |
|
Total |
1,798,411 |
1,838,844 |
2.2% |
|
California almonds, 01/08-31/03 |
|||
Caution over new crop
Although shipments were unexpectedly good in March, the season has now passed its peak and attention has shifted towards the new crop. Crop receipts continued to pour in in March and final receipts are expected to range at 2.45 billion pounds, which is only 6% down on the officially forecast 2.6 billion pounds. With availability becoming more limited in the remaining four months of the current season, the market should gain support and exports will slow. Domestic shipments have flatlined this season and anticipation is that this trend will persist. Early crop estimates will, however, be the main price drivers in the next few months.
Weather conditions may have been good so far, but caution prevails. Although February and March were wet, water allocations have not yet been lifted to 100% in southern California where almonds are mainly produced. Economic restraints have also made it impossible for many growers to properly invest in preventative care and field reports are mixed. A bumper crop is, in other words, far from certain and the industry is eagerly waiting for first estimates. The USDA will issue the subjective estimate on 7 May.
Speculations abound as to which direction prices will turn in the next few months. Although production has rebounded in Australia, some US suppliers insist that this will not fill the gap until the new crop arrives in California. Trouble is that many buyers have reportedly pursued a hand-to-mouth strategy and may need to meet customer demand while supplies are becoming more limited. Others, however, argue that export demand will decline.
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