Almonds: drought is not the only problem
August 26, 2024 at 11:21 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Slump in June shipments
Spain’s monthly almond exports may have slumped by 20% in June as compared with June last year, yet total exports show a different picture. Monthly exports, in fact, declined to 9,159 mt in June, whereas they amounted to 11,498 mt in June 2023. Contrary to this, total exports stand 6% higher at 131,610 mt for August 2023 to June 2024. While shipments to Spain’s leading export destination France have climbed by 5% on the same period in 2022/2023, shipments to Germany decreased by 4%. Exports to Italy are 4% up and the volumes shipped to Portugal and the Netherlands have surged by double digits.
|
Almond exports, Spain (mt) |
|||
|
Destination |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
Diff |
|
France |
28,769 |
30,130 |
4.7% |
|
Germany |
26,297 |
25,290 |
-3.8% |
|
Italy |
20,833 |
21,728 |
4.3% |
|
Portugal |
4,394 |
5,767 |
31.2% |
|
Netherlands |
3,817 |
4,855 |
27.2% |
|
UK |
5,069 |
4,624 |
-8.8% |
|
Poland |
4,237 |
4,003 |
-5.5% |
|
Belgium |
3,822 |
3,653 |
-4.4% |
|
Turkey |
2,781 |
2,673 |
-3.9% |
|
Switzerland |
2,306 |
2,483 |
7.7% |
|
Others |
21,857 |
26,404 |
20.8% |
|
Total |
124,182 |
131,610 |
6.0% |
|
Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Trade, Spain, 01/08-30/06 |
|||
Troubles in Spain
News in Spain is far from encouraging for the new season. While the leading agricultural organisations ASAJA, COAG, Cooperativas Agroalimentarias de España and AEOFRUSE issued an almond kernel production estimate of 122,304 mt in June thereby pegging output 8% higher than last year, the heatwaves and drought witnessed in summer have taken their toll on the crop. Production may range 15% lower. High temperatures even forced farmers to start harvesting nearly one month earlier than usual in higher altitudes, where the harvest is 30% complete. Problem is also that market prices still range much lower than production costs. Hopes that the current high international prices would help to alleviate this situation have been dissipated for almonds produced in drylands. Production costs partly range as high as EUR 4.00/kg (USD 4.47/kg) and local market prices as low as EUR 3.20/kg (USD 3.58/kg). For irrigated almonds the situation is a bit better.
In addition, the Xylella fastidiosa bacteria has made local headlines in recent days. As El País reports Xylella fastidiosa has nearly exterminated the local almond variety grown in the north of the Alicante municipality in the community of Valencia. The bacteria causes leaf scorch and trees die within four to five years after being infected. Although it is impossible to determine how much destruction can be attributed to drought, data from ASAJA shows that Valencia has lost 36% of its crop in the past four years. Xylella fastidiosa was first discovered in mainland Spain in Valencia in 2017 and has forced farmers to remove more than 240,000 plants, mainly almond trees, from infected areas in one of the largest ongoing eradication campaigns within the EU. Issue is that EU regulations require trees within 50 metres of infected plants to be uprooted. Growers are calling for this regulation to be changed and for the Spanish government to provide financial support and a scheme to plant resistant varieties.
Tight supplies in California
Harvesting is in full swing in California. The first arrivals may not be of overwhelmingly good quality and kernel size, yet this is normal for the start of the season and better assessments will be issued once more volumes arrive. With India securing supplies to meet demand during the festival season the market has firmed in the past week. Supplies are tight. As Olam highlights the carry-out from 2023/2024 will be around 451 million pounds, the lowest since 2020, and quality issues will make it difficult to find supplies. Prices are generally expected to remain firm in the fourth quarter. Much will depend on the new crop. If the crop size falls below the anticipated 2.8 billion pounds, prices will certainly rise.
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