Almonds: Australia forced to lower production forecast
May 4, 2023 at 9:07 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Estimates are revised by 25%
In its pre-seasonal crop estimate for 2023/2024, the Almond Board of Australia (ABA) had forecast a production increase to 156,200 mt, which would have been an increase of 8.6% compared to 2022/2023. At the end of April, however, the production forecast was drastically revised. It was reduced by a whopping 25%, which corresponds to about 117,150 mt and is the lowest value in recent years. In 2022/2023 the result was 143,805 mt and the year before still 124,439 mt. The expected increase in production thus turned into a decline of 18.5% compared to the previous year.
The reasons for this development are manifold and range from unfavourable weather conditions during the pollination phase, to an insufficient number of bee colonies, to poor water quality due to flooding. "We are in for another tough year. We have had storms, beehive shortages, floods, high input costs and low prices, so this is just another challenge for the industry," said ABA chairman Tim Jackson. According to Jackson, the other two global almond players - the US and Spain - are also facing production losses. The US Department of Agriculture's Subjective Crop Estimate is due to be released on 12 May and holds a much lower forecast than previously thought.
Exports at new record high
The Australian export season came to an end at the end of February, setting a new record for the fifth year in a row. Between March 2022 and February 2023, 105,490 mt of shelled and unshelled almonds were exported from Australia. Domestic shipments totalled 24,162 mt during this period, down nearly 9% from the previous year and still the fourth highest result in the past decade.
Shipments to many countries increased last year, including the main customers China (+45% to 50,984 mt), Spain (+64% to 8,693 mt) and Vietnam (+29% to 8,410 mt). In addition, exports to Turkey (+282% to 6,052 mt) and the USA (+214% to 2,914 mt) increased significantly, making the declining shipments to India (-46% to 8,993 mt) of little consequence. In total, around 129,651 mt of shelled and unshelled almonds were exported from Australia in the 2022/2023 season, an increase of 15% compared to the previous year.
|
Almond* exports and domestic demand, Australia, in mt |
|||
|
Destination |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
Diff. |
|
China |
35,270 |
50,984 |
44.6% |
|
Australia |
26,463 |
24,162 |
-8.7% |
|
India |
16,711 |
8,993 |
-46.2% |
|
Spain |
5,296 |
8,693 |
64.1% |
|
Vietnam |
6,529 |
8,410 |
28.8% |
|
Turkey |
1,584 |
6,052 |
282.1% |
|
Germany |
3,483 |
3,527 |
1.3% |
|
UAE |
2,741 |
3,483 |
27.1% |
|
USA |
928 |
2,914 |
214.0% |
|
Thailand |
1,908 |
2,073 |
8.6% |
|
Others |
12,134 |
10,360 |
-14.6% |
|
Total |
113,047 |
129,651 |
14.7% |
|
Almond Board of Australia; Mar-Feb *shelled and unshelled |
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